https://panelpicker.sxsw.com/ideas/98192 (voting from the 5th of August) #Prediction is hard, especially about things yet to happen. Even events that seem like simple binaries, such as US presidential elections can be subject to deep uncertainties despite mountains of data being available. Such #uncertainties are generated when the institutional context that elections take place it becomes unstable. AI may be able to help.
Full VersionPrediction is hard, especially about things yet to happen. Even events that seem like simple binaries, such as US presidential elections where two candidates face off, can be subject to deep uncertainties despite mountains of data being available. Such uncertainties are generated when the institutional context that elections take place in becomes unstable. But what destabilizes those contexts in some periods – such as now – the so-called ‘populist moment’ and not in other periods? AI may be able to help. Using a predictive AI engine Taylor Mann, Pine Capital and Mark Blyth, Brown University’s Rhodes Institute for International Economics and Finance got together with the folks at Decision Point to develop an AI that can detect such moments of discontinuity. Did it work? Come and find out.
- Understanding of Predictive Analytics
- Knowledge of underlying cultural context of elections
- Decision science as it moves towards critical insights
MARK BLYTH, BROWN UNIVERSITYMark Blyth is the William R. Rhodes ’57 Professor of International Economics, at the Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs, at Brown University. He finished his PhD. in political science at Columbia University in 1999. He then joined the Johns Hopkins University before moving to Brown University in 2009 where he became Professor of International Political Economy. His research focuses upon the causes of stability and change in the economy and why people continue to believe stupid economic ideas despite buckets of evidence to the contrary. The power of economic ideas is a common theme in Blyth’s work, as seen in his recent award winning Book, Austerity: The History of a Dangerous Idea (New York: Oxford University Press 2015); The Future of the Euro (New York: Oxford University Press 2015), and in his new projects on the political foundations of economic growth, and how to reduce inequality by growing assets for everyone who is not already rich.
TAYLOR MANN, PINE CAPITALTaylor Mann, CIO and founder of Pine Capital, a boutique research and hedge fund firm in Larue, Texas, has emerged as the go-to resource for many investors — including other hedge funds — on how to short the student loan market. He says the bond market for student loans and the equities of the publicly traded companies that handle the debt are inextricably linked. “If you read the covenants of the bonds on these federal loans, they say that if the debt isn’t properly managed, the government doesn’t have to pay,” Mann explains. “Instead, the liability falls to the entity managing the debt. A lot of people are making assumptions about getting paid on this debt, and that might not be the case.”
KARL SMITH, PARADIGM INTERACTIONS, DECISION POINT AI, HCD SOCIETY
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